Tags
climate change, global warming, migration patterns, migration prediction, population changes, settlement patterns
In consideration of recent climate patterns, post pandemic housing trends and our Country’s ever-increasing political polarization, I’m making the following predictions on which states and regions will see the greatest population shifts within the next ten years:
#1 – Recent Florida Growth Trends Will Not Just Slow but Reverse. Despite seeing record population growth in 2021 and 2022, I’m predicting that within the next ten years Florida’s population will sharply decline.
Whether due to increased storm activity, an aging population, increasing insurance and utility costs, a hostile political environment or any of these factors combined, Florida will no longer be a preferred senior and young adult destination ten years from now.
Moving to Florida has long been a choice for retirees due to its mild climate, sunny days and lack of a state income tax. However, Florida’s weather patterns are becoming increasingly dangerous with the state seeing not only stronger hurricanes, but increased coastal flooding. Throw in recent and future heat index trends and it’s predicted seniors may look for cooler, safer states.
It’s getting costlier too. An effect of the Feds halting national flood insurance subsidies in 2021 was homeowners now pay up to four times more for home insurance, with many major insurers pulling out of the state altogether. Further, the state has allowed the merger of many local power companies and the remaining monopolies have greatly increase electricity delivery costs. With the intensity of storms increasing, power delivery costs can also be expected to increase in order to cover the increased damage to infrastructure.
Existing housing prices have skyrocketed 80% in the last five years and new housing starts are down. Comments from recent transplants are already hinting at other tax-friendly and less expensive states.
And we can’t forget that adding to the Florida Exodus will be what many see as a hostile, anti-woman, anti-immigrant, anti-gay and even anti-business political agenda.
#2 – Texas May be in Trouble Sooner Than Later. Texas is in the middle of an economic boom. However, given the effects of climate change, the states’ power grid issues and the possible depletion of local aquifers, Texas’ boom is not sustainable. Despite claims otherwise, and it’s surprisingly strong commitment to renewables, Texas and its neighboring states face several upcoming crises.
In fact, some experts predict that within 50 years Texas will become unlivable for six months out of the year with temperatures reaching above 95 daily. Like Florida, the intensity of recent hurricanes has increased and the state has its share of flooding and tornado concerns. As it is, Texas leads the nation in the frequency and cost of its natural disasters. This situation won’t be getting better any time soon.
And even if greenhouse gases and other global warming issues can be reined in, there is a potable water problem. There always seems to be too little or too much in the State, with the Texas Water Development Board noting more sources are needed to meet future demands.
Then there are Texas’ questionable social policies. It, also like Florida, has engaged in a grisly war on women and immigrants.
While a state population decline may not be seen in the near future, it is clear that Texas is in for a world of pain with heat waves like we saw last summer becoming the norm. I predict it will come to a crux in less than 20 years – forget about the 50-year projections.
#3 – The Small City Revival Continues… In Some Places. While working remotely makes it possible to live anywhere, people (especially younger people) crave a vibrant, lively and interactive lifestyle. Cue the old building stock and start-up opportunities that can be found in many smaller Northeast and Midwest urban centers. Small cities (defined as between 50,000 and 100,000 people) provide big city living without the big city prices or congestion.
While the 1990’s and 2010’s saw a return to larger cities and the growth of many small western cities, small northeast and midwest urban centers often saw population losses. However, the pandemic highlighted changes to many of these long-standing trends.
Retired Boomers, for example, have been leaving the suburbs and larger metropolitan areas for smaller cities for a while now. These smaller urban environments are perfect for those who still crave urban atmospheres and resources but at a less expensive or hectic pace. The same can be said for two out of five Millennials. In fact, a decade-long Millennial, Gen X, Gen Z trend was only amplified by the “big city flight” seen during Covid-19.
Prediction: Northeast/Midwest small cities will continue their revitalization trend due to their inherent character, existing infrastructure, existing services and relativity cheap building stock, making them attractive to Boomers and young entrepreneurs.
#4 – New York Will Still Lose Population. However, the trend out of New York will continue for an obvious reason. New York has the highest combined tax of all fifty states. Four out of 10 New Yorkers surveyed stated they considered leaving the state due to taxes.
Although its sales tax and income tax are high, they are not the worst in the land. It’s the state’s property tax burden that pushes New York into the front runner spot. New York has over 1500 local government entities and thousands of special districts with the ability to add to your property tax bill. Then there are the hidden costs of our public authorities. And despite years of pressure from the state to consolidate services, few entities have been eliminated. For example, of New York’s 530+ incorporated villages only 40 have formally considered dissolving or consolidating in the past dozen or so years.
Adding to the property tax mess are educational costs. New York spends 80 to 85% above the national average per pupil. Instructional salaries and benefits, which totaled about $18,400 per pupil in 2022 are 111% above the national average of $8,728 per pupil.
As long as the thousands of small overlapping local government entities, special districts and school districts remain, New York’s property taxes will remain unreasonably high.
And, then, there is the ever present threat of rising ocean levels. Coastal flooding will eventually take its toll on New Yorks’ economic engine – New York City. Throw in the threat of a wet bulb bomb along the Hudson River and the impetus to leave will become stronger.
#5 – Idaho is Cool … in more ways than one. Global warming? High Taxes? Not here. With a cool climate, a wide range of beautiful environments, low taxes and a strong jobs market, Idaho has everything someone hoping to escape the heat and high cost of living would want.
Well, maybe not everything. The southern portions of the State have seen continued droughts and its record population increases have only exacerbated the problem. The state tends to lack diversity and, if reports can be believed, the influx is not helping the problem. You also have to like cold winters. The “sunbelt” it is not, though it averages over 200 sunny days a year.
Still, the economic and environmental reasons to consider the state are many with only a few downsides. Despite Idaho joining the war on women bandwagon, I predict its popularity will continue for as long as it can maintain its reasonable tax rates, strong job market and low housing costs.
~Dara Trahan/November-December 2023
Maskology by Dara Trahan 